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Doug Green v Kian Whelan (Thu 14 Dec 2017)

Match won by Doug Green. Result: 9-6,9-7,9-7.

Starting level for Doug Green: 1,864, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Kian Whelan: 1,038, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Doug Green to win as he is currently playing 80% better than Kian Whelan.

Doug Green won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Doug Green played 29% better than Kian Whelan in this match.

As Doug Green has played below his allowed range at 1,419, his level reduction is 6% before damping. On the assumption that Doug Green would normally have been playing at level 1,695 (based on typical behaviour), Kian Whelan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.5% and 9.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Doug Green changes to -4.5% and Kian Whelan changes to +7.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Doug Green becomes -3% and for Kian Whelan becomes +5.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Doug Green is -2.2% and for Kian Whelan is +3.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Doug Green: 77%, Kian Whelan: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Doug Green: 65%, Kian Whelan: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Doug Green: 1,821, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Kian Whelan: 1,076, level confidence: 73%.