Dave Milford v David Fentum (Wed 20 Dec 2017)
Match won by David Fentum. Result: 4-9,5-9,7-9.
Starting level for
Dave Milford:
1,617, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for
David Fentum:
1,984, level confidence: 60%.
David Fentum to win as he is currently playing
23% better than Dave Milford.
David Fentum won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Fentum played
40% better than Dave Milford in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Fentum actually played at a level of
2,116 and Dave Milford at a level of
1,516. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.7% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Fentum changes to +5.6% and Dave Milford changes to -6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Fentum becomes +3.3% and for Dave Milford becomes -3.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for David Fentum is +2.5% and for Dave Milford is -2.8%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Fentum: 78%, Dave Milford: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Fentum: 73%, Dave Milford: 70%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Dave Milford:
1,571, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for David Fentum:
2,030, level confidence: 73%.