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Doug Green v Louis Payne (Wed 03 Jan 2018)

Match won by Doug Green. Result: 10-8,9-0,9-3.

Starting level for Doug Green: 1,821, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Louis Payne: 1,129, level confidence: 10%.
Doug Green to win as he is currently playing 61% better than Louis Payne.

Doug Green won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 63% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Doug Green played 63% better than Louis Payne in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Doug Green actually played at a level of 1,831 and Louis Payne at a level of 1,123. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 0.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Doug Green changes to 0% and Louis Payne changes to -0.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Doug Green becomes +0.1% and for Louis Payne becomes -0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Doug Green is 0% and for Louis Payne is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Doug Green: 77%, Louis Payne: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Doug Green: 77%, Louis Payne: 31%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Doug Green: 1,819, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Louis Payne: 1,124, level confidence: 31%.