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Elvin Booth v Steve Raynsford (Wed 03 Jan 2018)

Match won by Steve Raynsford. Result: 4-9,1-9,3-9.

Starting level for Elvin Booth: 1,199, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Steve Raynsford: 1,722, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Steve Raynsford to win as he is currently playing 44% better than Elvin Booth.

Steve Raynsford won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 86% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Raynsford played 86% better than Elvin Booth in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steve Raynsford actually played at a level of 1,960 and Elvin Booth at a level of 1,054. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Raynsford changes to +9.9% and Elvin Booth changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Raynsford becomes +5.2% and for Elvin Booth becomes -6.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Vets League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Steve Raynsford is +3.9% and for Elvin Booth is -4.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Raynsford: 85%, Elvin Booth: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Raynsford: 75%, Elvin Booth: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Elvin Booth: 1,141, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Steve Raynsford: 1,786, level confidence: 75%.