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Nic Birt v Adam Coates (Thu 11 Jan 2018)

Match won by Nic Birt. Result: 11-6,11-6,11-4.

Starting level for Nic Birt: 9,444, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Adam Coates: 3,507, level confidence: 47%.
Nic Birt to win as he is currently playing 169% better than Adam Coates.

Nic Birt won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nic Birt played 106% better than Adam Coates in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Nic Birt was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 5,568 and 9,444 without affecting his level.

In this case, Nic Birt played at level 7,349 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Nic Birt would normally have been playing at level 7,467 (based on typical behaviour), Adam Coates played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nic Birt changes to 0% and Adam Coates changes to +1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nic Birt becomes 0% and for Adam Coates becomes +0.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Nic Birt is 0% and for Adam Coates is +0.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nic Birt: 77%, Adam Coates: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nic Birt: 68%, Adam Coates: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nic Birt: 9,430, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Adam Coates: 3,518, level confidence: 60%.