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Tom Periton v Nico Ferrand (Wed 10 Jan 2018)

Match won by Tom Periton. Result: 9-15,15-9,15-7,15-6.

Starting level for Tom Periton: 1,351, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Nico Ferrand: 1,278, level confidence: 61%.
Tom Periton to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Nico Ferrand.

Tom Periton won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 46% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Periton played 32% better than Nico Ferrand in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Periton actually played at a level of 1,509 and Nico Ferrand at a level of 1,144. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Periton changes to +10.9% and Nico Ferrand changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Periton becomes +6.1% and for Nico Ferrand becomes -6.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Western Mixed Box Leagues' so the adjustment for Tom Periton is +4.6% and for Nico Ferrand is -4.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Periton: 80%, Nico Ferrand: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Periton: 72%, Nico Ferrand: 70%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Periton: 1,410, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Nico Ferrand: 1,247, level confidence: 70%.