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Dave Milford v Alan Martin (Wed 17 Jan 2018)

Match won by Dave Milford. Result: 9-5,9-8,6-9,9-2.

Starting level for Dave Milford: 1,570, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Alan Martin: 1,739, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Alan Martin to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Dave Milford.

Dave Milford won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dave Milford played 23% better than Alan Martin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dave Milford actually played at a level of 1,830 and Alan Martin at a level of 1,492. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dave Milford changes to +16% and Alan Martin changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dave Milford becomes +7.6% and for Alan Martin becomes -6.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Dave Milford is +5.7% and for Alan Martin is -4.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dave Milford: 79%, Alan Martin: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dave Milford: 68%, Alan Martin: 73%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dave Milford: 1,657, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Alan Martin: 1,697, level confidence: 73%.