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Nic Birt v Alfie Wheeler (Thu 18 Jan 2018)

Match won by Nic Birt. Result: 11-6,11-2,11-5.

Starting level for Nic Birt: 9,513, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Alfie Wheeler: 3,792, level confidence: 48%.
Nic Birt to win as he is currently playing 151% better than Alfie Wheeler.

Nic Birt won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nic Birt played 154% better than Alfie Wheeler in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nic Birt actually played at a level of 9,569 and Alfie Wheeler at a level of 3,770. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.6% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 0.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nic Birt changes to 0% and Alfie Wheeler changes to -0.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nic Birt becomes +0.1% and for Alfie Wheeler becomes 0%.

Given Nic Birt's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Nic Birt is 0% and for Alfie Wheeler is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nic Birt: 81%, Alfie Wheeler: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nic Birt: 80%, Alfie Wheeler: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nic Birt: 9,507, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Alfie Wheeler: 3,780, level confidence: 69%.