SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Doug Green v Laurie Lacey-Hastings (Wed 24 Jan 2018)

Match won by Laurie Lacey-Hastings. Result: 1-9,3-9,9-7,2-9.

Starting level for Doug Green: 1,813, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Laurie Lacey-Hastings: 1,891, level confidence: 57%.
Laurie Lacey-Hastings to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Doug Green.

Laurie Lacey-Hastings won 75% of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 51% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Laurie Lacey-Hastings played 34% better than Doug Green in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Laurie Lacey-Hastings actually played at a level of 2,140 and Doug Green at a level of 1,602. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Laurie Lacey-Hastings changes to +13% and Doug Green changes to -10.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Laurie Lacey-Hastings becomes +6.1% and for Doug Green becomes -5.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Laurie Lacey-Hastings is +4.6% and for Doug Green is -3.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Laurie Lacey-Hastings: 76%, Doug Green: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Laurie Lacey-Hastings: 67%, Doug Green: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Doug Green: 1,774, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Laurie Lacey-Hastings: 1,974, level confidence: 67%.