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Richard Tuck v Dave Milford (Wed 24 Jan 2018)

Match won by Dave Milford. Result: 2-9,9-6,0-9,5-9.

Starting level for Richard Tuck: 1,712, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dave Milford: 1,657, level confidence: 66%.
Richard Tuck to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Dave Milford.

Dave Milford won 75% of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 44% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dave Milford played 31% better than Richard Tuck in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dave Milford actually played at a level of 1,930 and Richard Tuck at a level of 1,470. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dave Milford changes to +16% and Richard Tuck changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dave Milford becomes +7.6% and for Richard Tuck becomes -7.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Dave Milford is +5.7% and for Richard Tuck is -5.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dave Milford: 81%, Richard Tuck: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dave Milford: 70%, Richard Tuck: 72%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richard Tuck: 1,667, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Dave Milford: 1,749, level confidence: 70%.