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Rob Holmes v Kate Russell (Wed 24 Jan 2018)

Match won by Rob Holmes. Result: 9-3,9-0,10-8.

Starting level for Rob Holmes: 2,104, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Kate Russell: 1,675, level confidence: 65%.
Rob Holmes to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Kate Russell.

Rob Holmes won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 63% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Holmes played 63% better than Kate Russell in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Holmes actually played at a level of 2,397 and Kate Russell at a level of 1,470. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Holmes changes to +10.5% and Kate Russell changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Holmes becomes +5% and for Kate Russell becomes -6.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Rob Holmes is +3.8% and for Kate Russell is -4.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Holmes: 88%, Kate Russell: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Holmes: 77%, Kate Russell: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rob Holmes: 2,180, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Kate Russell: 1,599, level confidence: 71%.