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Derek Murray v Doug Green (Sun 28 Jan 2018)

Match won by Derek Murray. Result: 10-9,9-6,2-9,10-8.

Starting level for Derek Murray: 2,028, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Doug Green: 1,779, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Derek Murray to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Doug Green.

Derek Murray won 75% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Derek Murray played 16% better than Doug Green in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Derek Murray actually played at a level of 2,047 and Doug Green at a level of 1,763. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Derek Murray changes to +0.8% and Doug Green changes to -0.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Derek Murray becomes +0.6% and for Doug Green becomes -0.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Vets League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Derek Murray is +0.5% and for Doug Green is -0.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Derek Murray: 87%, Doug Green: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Derek Murray: 86%, Doug Green: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Derek Murray: 2,035, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Doug Green: 1,767, level confidence: 85%.