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Fleur Orchard v Dave Milford (Wed 31 Jan 2018)

Match won by Dave Milford. Result: 4-9,2-9,4-9.

Starting level for Fleur Orchard: 1,333, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dave Milford: 1,753, level confidence: 68%.
Dave Milford to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Fleur Orchard.

Dave Milford won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dave Milford played 67% better than Fleur Orchard in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dave Milford actually played at a level of 1,975 and Fleur Orchard at a level of 1,183. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dave Milford changes to +11% and Fleur Orchard changes to -10.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dave Milford becomes +5.5% and for Fleur Orchard becomes -6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Dave Milford is +4.1% and for Fleur Orchard is -4.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dave Milford: 82%, Fleur Orchard: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dave Milford: 73%, Fleur Orchard: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Fleur Orchard: 1,303, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Dave Milford: 1,823, level confidence: 73%.