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Doug Chandler v Doug Green (Thu 01 Feb 2018)

Match won by Doug Chandler. Result: 9-7,3-9,5-9,10-9,9-6.

Starting level for Doug Chandler: 1,926, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Doug Green: 1,767, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Doug Chandler to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Doug Green.

Doug Chandler won 60% of the games and 47% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 6% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Doug Chandler played 6% better than Doug Green in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Doug Chandler actually played at a level of 1,900 and Doug Green at a level of 1,791. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Doug Chandler changes to -1.3% and Doug Green changes to +1.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Doug Chandler becomes -1% and for Doug Green becomes +1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Doug Chandler is -0.8% and for Doug Green is +0.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Doug Chandler: 90%, Doug Green: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Doug Chandler: 89%, Doug Green: 90%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Doug Chandler: 1,909, level confidence: 89%.
Final level for Doug Green: 1,778, level confidence: 90%.