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Neil Mallam v Riz R Azhar (Tue 06 Feb 2018)

Match won by Neil Mallam. Result: 6-9,4-9,9-6,9-7,9-5.

Starting level for Neil Mallam: 1,817, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Riz R Azhar: 1,740, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Neil Mallam to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Riz R Azhar.

Neil Mallam won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neil Mallam played 8% better than Riz R Azhar in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Neil Mallam actually played at a level of 1,848 and Riz R Azhar at a level of 1,711. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neil Mallam changes to +1.7% and Riz R Azhar changes to -1.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neil Mallam becomes +1.3% and for Riz R Azhar becomes -1.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Neil Mallam is +1% and for Riz R Azhar is -0.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neil Mallam: 77%, Riz R Azhar: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neil Mallam: 76%, Riz R Azhar: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Neil Mallam: 1,832, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Riz R Azhar: 1,723, level confidence: 83%.