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James Roué v Neil Mallam (Sun 11 Feb 2018)

Match won by James Roué. Result: 9-6,9-7,9-5.

Starting level for James Roué: 2,275, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Neil Mallam: 1,832, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
James Roué to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Neil Mallam.

James Roué won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Roué played 34% better than Neil Mallam in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Roué actually played at a level of 2,365 and Neil Mallam at a level of 1,762. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.6% and 3.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Roué changes to +3.6% and Neil Mallam changes to -2.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Roué becomes +2.4% and for Neil Mallam becomes -1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for James Roué is +1.8% and for Neil Mallam is -1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Roué: 72%, Neil Mallam: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Roué: 69%, Neil Mallam: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Roué: 2,313, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Neil Mallam: 1,803, level confidence: 83%.