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Doug Green v Jon Prag (Wed 14 Feb 2018)

Match won by Doug Green. Result: 9-5,10-9,9-0.

Starting level for Doug Green: 1,773, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jon Prag: 1,409, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Doug Green to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Jon Prag.

Doug Green won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 44% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Doug Green played 48% better than Jon Prag in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Doug Green actually played at a level of 1,920 and Jon Prag at a level of 1,301. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.3% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.4% and 7.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Doug Green changes to +7.2% and Jon Prag changes to -7.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Doug Green becomes +4% and for Jon Prag becomes -4.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Doug Green is +3% and for Jon Prag is -3.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Doug Green: 92%, Jon Prag: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Doug Green: 85%, Jon Prag: 84%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Doug Green: 1,824, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Jon Prag: 1,379, level confidence: 84%.