Charlie Lee v Joshua Masters (Thu 15 Feb 2018)
Match won by Joshua Masters. Result: 6-11,8-11,7-11.
Starting level for
Charlie Lee:
27,589, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for
Joshua Masters:
29,528, level confidence: 65%.
Joshua Masters to win as he is currently playing
7% better than Charlie Lee.
Joshua Masters won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joshua Masters played
56% better than Charlie Lee in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joshua Masters actually played at a level of
35,699 and Charlie Lee at a level of
22,820. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joshua Masters changes to +19% and Charlie Lee changes to -20%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joshua Masters becomes +4.2% and for Charlie Lee becomes -4.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Dunlop National Championships 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joshua Masters: 81%, Charlie Lee: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joshua Masters: 67%, Charlie Lee: 65%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Charlie Lee:
26,548, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Joshua Masters:
30,586, level confidence: 67%.