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Tarek Momen v Mazen Hesham (Thu 15 Feb 2018)

Match won by Tarek Momen. Result: 4-11,9-11,11-6,11-7,14-12.

Starting level for Tarek Momen: 54,232, level confidence: 38%.
Starting level for Mazen Hesham: 42,327, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Tarek Momen to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Mazen Hesham.

Tarek Momen won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tarek Momen played 9% better than Mazen Hesham in this match.

As Tarek Momen has played below his allowed range at 48,919, his level reduction is 6.5% before damping. On the assumption that Tarek Momen would normally have been playing at level 53,144 (based on typical behaviour), Mazen Hesham played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.7% and 6.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tarek Momen changes to -5.7% and Mazen Hesham changes to +3.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tarek Momen becomes -1.6% and for Mazen Hesham becomes +1.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Egyptian National Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tarek Momen: 62%, Mazen Hesham: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tarek Momen: 57%, Mazen Hesham: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tarek Momen: 53,341, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Mazen Hesham: 42,845, level confidence: 81%.