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Max Lee v Ryan Cuskelly (Thu 15 Feb 2018)

Match won by Max Lee. Result: 11-7,11-7,5-11,14-12.

Starting level for Max Lee: 42,931, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ryan Cuskelly: 48,029, level confidence: 66%.
Ryan Cuskelly to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Max Lee.

Max Lee won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Max Lee played 20% better than Ryan Cuskelly in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Max Lee actually played at a level of 49,808 and Ryan Cuskelly at a level of 41,397. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Max Lee changes to +12% and Ryan Cuskelly changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Max Lee becomes +2.8% and for Ryan Cuskelly becomes -3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Canada Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Max Lee: 90%, Ryan Cuskelly: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Max Lee: 78%, Ryan Cuskelly: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Max Lee: 44,035, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Ryan Cuskelly: 46,600, level confidence: 70%.