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Elvin Booth v Adrian Strange (Mon 19 Feb 2018)

Match won by Adrian Strange. Result: 5-9,10-9,4-9,10-8,5-9.

Starting level for Elvin Booth: 1,141, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Adrian Strange: 1,624, level confidence: 67%.
Adrian Strange to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Elvin Booth.

Adrian Strange won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrian Strange played 11% better than Elvin Booth in this match.

As Adrian Strange has played below his allowed range at 1,371, his level reduction is 8.5% before damping. On the assumption that Adrian Strange would normally have been playing at level 1,562 (based on typical behaviour), Elvin Booth played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.1% and 9.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrian Strange changes to -6.1% and Elvin Booth changes to +9.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrian Strange becomes -3.8% and for Elvin Booth becomes +5.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Vets League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Adrian Strange is -2.8% and for Elvin Booth is +4.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrian Strange: 82%, Elvin Booth: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrian Strange: 72%, Elvin Booth: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Elvin Booth: 1,189, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Adrian Strange: 1,578, level confidence: 72%.