Rob Holmes v Chris Dunkley (Wed 21 Feb 2018)
Match won by Chris Dunkley. Result: 9-2,2-9,8-10,6-9.
Starting level for
Rob Holmes:
2,181, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
Chris Dunkley:
1,814, level confidence: 67%.
Rob Holmes to win as he is currently playing
20% better than Chris Dunkley.
Chris Dunkley won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Dunkley played
20% better than Rob Holmes in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Dunkley actually played at a level of
2,182 and Rob Holmes at a level of
1,813. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Dunkley changes to +18% and Rob Holmes changes to -18%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Dunkley becomes +8.2% and for Rob Holmes becomes -7.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Chris Dunkley is +6.1% and for Rob Holmes is -5.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Dunkley: 82%, Rob Holmes: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Dunkley: 68%, Rob Holmes: 69%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Rob Holmes:
2,063, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Chris Dunkley:
1,923, level confidence: 68%.