SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Ben Angilley v Nic Birt (Thu 22 Feb 2018)

Match won by Nic Birt. Result: 5-11,4-11,6-11.

Starting level for Ben Angilley: 2,173, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nic Birt: 9,386, level confidence: 47%.
Nic Birt to win as he is currently playing 332% better than Ben Angilley.

Nic Birt won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nic Birt played 120% better than Ben Angilley in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Nic Birt was taking it easy by anything up to 37%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,305 and 9,386 without affecting his level.

In this case, Nic Birt played at level 5,312 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Nic Birt would normally have been playing at level 5,902 (based on typical behaviour), Ben Angilley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nic Birt changes to 0% and Ben Angilley changes to +3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nic Birt becomes 0% and for Ben Angilley becomes +2.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Nic Birt is 0% and for Ben Angilley is +1.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nic Birt: 69%, Ben Angilley: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nic Birt: 49%, Ben Angilley: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ben Angilley: 2,206, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Nic Birt: 9,372, level confidence: 49%.