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Russell Baker v Doug Green (Thu 22 Feb 2018)

Match won by Doug Green. Result: 1-9,1-9,4-9.

Starting level for Russell Baker: 1,626, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Doug Green: 1,824, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Doug Green to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Russell Baker.

Doug Green won all of the games and 82% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 117% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Doug Green played 117% better than Russell Baker in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Doug Green actually played at a level of 2,537 and Russell Baker at a level of 1,169. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 39% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Doug Green changes to +30% and Russell Baker changes to -37%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Doug Green becomes +12.3% and for Russell Baker becomes -15%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Vets League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Doug Green is +9.2% and for Russell Baker is -11%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Russell Baker is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Doug Green: 91%, Russell Baker: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Doug Green: 65%, Russell Baker: 59%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Russell Baker: 1,546, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Doug Green: 1,989, level confidence: 65%.