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Charlie Lee v Kale Wilson (Wed 21 Feb 2018)

Match won by Charlie Lee. Result: 11-3,11-5,11-1.

Starting level for Charlie Lee: 26,548, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Kale Wilson: 6,202, level confidence: 37%.
Charlie Lee to win as he is currently playing 328% better than Kale Wilson.

Charlie Lee won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Charlie Lee played 267% better than Kale Wilson in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Charlie Lee was taking it easy by anything up to 37%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 10,606 and 26,548 without affecting his level.

In this case, Charlie Lee played at level 22,741 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Kale Wilson is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Charlie Lee: 79%, Kale Wilson: 61%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Charlie Lee: 74%, Kale Wilson: 56%.

Final level for Charlie Lee: 26,548, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Kale Wilson: 6,202, level confidence: 56%.