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Gregoire Marche v Dylan Cunningham (Thu 22 Feb 2018)

Match won by Gregoire Marche. Result: 11-4,11-3,11-8.

Starting level for Gregoire Marche: 38,183, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Dylan Cunningham: 13,638, level confidence: 46%.
Gregoire Marche to win as he is currently playing 180% better than Dylan Cunningham.

Gregoire Marche won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregoire Marche played 120% better than Dylan Cunningham in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Gregoire Marche was taking it easy by anything up to 22%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 23,134 and 38,183 without affecting his level.

In this case, Gregoire Marche played at level 30,004 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Dylan Cunningham is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregoire Marche: 82%, Dylan Cunningham: 68%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregoire Marche: 72%, Dylan Cunningham: 60%.

Final level for Gregoire Marche: 38,183, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Dylan Cunningham: 13,638, level confidence: 60%.