Gregoire Marche v Nafizwan Adnan (Fri 23 Feb 2018)
Match won by Gregoire Marche. Result: 11-7,11-9,11-6.
Starting level for
Gregoire Marche:
38,371, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Nafizwan Adnan:
37,022, level confidence: 69%.
Gregoire Marche to win as he is currently playing
4% better than Nafizwan Adnan.
Gregoire Marche won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregoire Marche played
52% better than Nafizwan Adnan in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gregoire Marche actually played at a level of
46,414 and Nafizwan Adnan at a level of
30,606. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche changes to +20% and Nafizwan Adnan changes to -21%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche becomes +4.2% and for Nafizwan Adnan becomes -4.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Windy City Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregoire Marche: 85%, Nafizwan Adnan: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregoire Marche: 70%, Nafizwan Adnan: 69%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Gregoire Marche:
39,720, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Nafizwan Adnan:
35,629, level confidence: 69%.