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Andrew Schnell v Charlie Lee (Mon 26 Feb 2018)

Match won by Andrew Schnell. Result: 11-7,11-7,11-7.

Starting level for Andrew Schnell: 27,346, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Charlie Lee: 25,976, level confidence: 68%.
Andrew Schnell to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Charlie Lee.

Andrew Schnell won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andrew Schnell played 56% better than Charlie Lee in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andrew Schnell actually played at a level of 33,335 and Charlie Lee at a level of 21,309. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andrew Schnell changes to +21% and Charlie Lee changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andrew Schnell becomes +4.7% and for Charlie Lee becomes -4.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Montreal Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andrew Schnell: 80%, Charlie Lee: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andrew Schnell: 66%, Charlie Lee: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andrew Schnell: 28,424, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Charlie Lee: 24,968, level confidence: 67%.