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Alfredo Avila v Auguste Dussourd (Tue 27 Feb 2018)

Match won by Alfredo Avila. Result: 11-9,3-11,11-4,11-6.

Starting level for Alfredo Avila: 27,416, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Auguste Dussourd: 23,699, level confidence: 61%.
Alfredo Avila to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Auguste Dussourd.

Alfredo Avila won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alfredo Avila played 23% better than Auguste Dussourd in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alfredo Avila actually played at a level of 28,310 and Auguste Dussourd at a level of 22,951. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alfredo Avila changes to +2.8% and Auguste Dussourd changes to -3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alfredo Avila becomes +1.2% and for Auguste Dussourd becomes -1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Montreal Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alfredo Avila: 80%, Auguste Dussourd: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alfredo Avila: 78%, Auguste Dussourd: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alfredo Avila: 27,565, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Auguste Dussourd: 23,500, level confidence: 76%.