Ali Jafari v Charlie Lee (Mon 05 Mar 2018)
Match won by Charlie Lee. Result: 3-11,3-11,5-11.
Starting level for
Ali Jafari:
7,649, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Charlie Lee:
24,953, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Charlie Lee to win as he is currently playing
226% better than Ali Jafari.
Charlie Lee won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Charlie Lee played
200% better than Ali Jafari in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Charlie Lee was taking it easy by anything up to 27%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 12,206 and 24,953 without affecting his level.
In this case, Charlie Lee played at level 22,947 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Ali Jafari is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Charlie Lee: 89%, Ali Jafari: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Charlie Lee: 86%, Ali Jafari: 87%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Ali Jafari:
7,638, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Charlie Lee:
24,916, level confidence: 86%.