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James Walters v Nic Birt (Thu 08 Mar 2018)

Match won by Nic Birt. Result: 8-11,10-12,12-14.

Starting level for James Walters: 4,349, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Nic Birt: 9,283, level confidence: 47%.
Nic Birt to win as he is currently playing 113% better than James Walters.

Nic Birt won all of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nic Birt played 34% better than James Walters in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Nic Birt was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 6,590 and 9,283 without affecting his level.

As Nic Birt has played below his allowed range at 6,192, his level reduction is 6.4% before damping. On the assumption that Nic Birt would normally have been playing at level 7,972 (based on typical behaviour), James Walters played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.4% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nic Birt changes to -4.4% and James Walters changes to +7.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nic Birt becomes -1.9% and for James Walters becomes +3.3%.

Given Nic Birt's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Nic Birt is -1.2% and for James Walters is +2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nic Birt: 68%, James Walters: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nic Birt: 54%, James Walters: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Walters: 4,449, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Nic Birt: 9,158, level confidence: 54%.