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Gregoire Marche v Joel Makin (Sun 04 Mar 2018)

Match won by Gregoire Marche. Result: 11-7,8-11,11-7.

Starting level for Gregoire Marche: 39,985, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joel Makin: 37,083, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Gregoire Marche to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Joel Makin.

Gregoire Marche won 67% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregoire Marche played 20% better than Joel Makin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gregoire Marche actually played at a level of 42,182 and Joel Makin at a level of 35,152. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.5% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 3.9% and 3.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche changes to +3.7% and Joel Makin changes to -3.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche becomes +1.3% and for Joel Makin becomes -1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Canary Wharf Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregoire Marche: 89%, Joel Makin: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregoire Marche: 85%, Joel Makin: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gregoire Marche: 40,414, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Joel Makin: 36,648, level confidence: 82%.