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Mazen Hesham v Joshua Masters (Sun 04 Mar 2018)

Match won by Mazen Hesham. Result: 11-5,11-6.

Starting level for Mazen Hesham: 42,037, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joshua Masters: 29,797, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Mazen Hesham to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Joshua Masters.

Mazen Hesham won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 100% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mazen Hesham played 100% better than Joshua Masters in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mazen Hesham actually played at a level of 50,052 and Joshua Masters at a level of 25,026. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mazen Hesham changes to +10.6% and Joshua Masters changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mazen Hesham becomes +2.5% and for Joshua Masters becomes -2.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Canary Wharf Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mazen Hesham: 91%, Joshua Masters: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mazen Hesham: 76%, Joshua Masters: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mazen Hesham: 42,870, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Joshua Masters: 29,122, level confidence: 73%.