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Ali Farag v Ryan Cuskelly (Wed 07 Mar 2018)

Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 11-9,10-12,11-4.

Starting level for Ali Farag: 61,727, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Ryan Cuskelly: 46,909, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Ryan Cuskelly.

Ali Farag won 67% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played 24% better than Ryan Cuskelly in this match.

As Ali Farag has played below his allowed range at 58,463, his level reduction is 0.5% before damping. On the assumption that Ali Farag would normally have been playing at level 60,225 (based on typical behaviour), Ryan Cuskelly played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 1.5% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 0.3% and 1.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ali Farag changes to -0.3% and Ryan Cuskelly changes to +1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ali Farag becomes -0.1% and for Ryan Cuskelly becomes +0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Canary Wharf Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 82%, Ryan Cuskelly: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 79%, Ryan Cuskelly: 87%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ali Farag: 61,414, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Ryan Cuskelly: 47,183, level confidence: 87%.