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Nic Birt v Stacey Gooding (Thu 15 Mar 2018)

Match won by Nic Birt. Result: 11-8,11-5,11-1.

Starting level for Nic Birt: 9,159, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Stacey Gooding: 3,564, level confidence: 67%.
Nic Birt to win as he is currently playing 157% better than Stacey Gooding.

Nic Birt won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nic Birt played 136% better than Stacey Gooding in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Nic Birt was taking it easy by anything up to 19%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 5,625 and 9,159 without affecting his level.

In this case, Nic Birt played at level 8,401 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Stacey Gooding is considered to have not played better than expected and her level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nic Birt: 72%, Stacey Gooding: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nic Birt: 69%, Stacey Gooding: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nic Birt: 9,145, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Stacey Gooding: 3,559, level confidence: 78%.