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Raphael Kandra v Zahed Mohamed (Tue 13 Mar 2018)

Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 11-5,11-3,6-11,11-6.

Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 35,006, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Zahed Mohamed: 33,529, level confidence: 62%.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Zahed Mohamed.

Raphael Kandra won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 56% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played 35% better than Zahed Mohamed in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Raphael Kandra actually played at a level of 39,840 and Zahed Mohamed at a level of 29,461. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to +10.2% and Zahed Mohamed changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes +2.5% and for Zahed Mohamed becomes -3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Grasshopper Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 91%, Zahed Mohamed: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 80%, Zahed Mohamed: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raphael Kandra: 35,853, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Zahed Mohamed: 32,688, level confidence: 69%.