Omar Mosaad v Gregoire Marche (Wed 14 Mar 2018)
Match won by Omar Mosaad. Result: 5-11,11-4,11-6,11-3.
Starting level for
Omar Mosaad:
36,272, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for
Gregoire Marche:
40,812, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Gregoire Marche to win as he is currently playing
13% better than Omar Mosaad.
Omar Mosaad won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 58% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Omar Mosaad played
36% better than Gregoire Marche in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Omar Mosaad actually played at a level of
44,869 and Gregoire Marche at a level of
32,992. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Omar Mosaad changes to +22% and Gregoire Marche changes to -14%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Omar Mosaad becomes +4.6% and for Gregoire Marche becomes -3.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Grasshopper Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Omar Mosaad: 73%, Gregoire Marche: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Omar Mosaad: 59%, Gregoire Marche: 72%.
A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Omar Mosaad:
37,818, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Gregoire Marche:
40,015, level confidence: 72%.