Mazen Hesham v Mathieu Castagnet (Wed 14 Mar 2018)
Match won by Mazen Hesham. Result: 11-7,11-4,11-7.
Starting level for
Mazen Hesham:
42,253, level confidence: 91%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mathieu Castagnet:
39,259, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Mazen Hesham to win as he is currently playing
8% better than Mathieu Castagnet.
Mazen Hesham won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mazen Hesham played
83% better than Mathieu Castagnet in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mazen Hesham actually played at a level of
55,147 and Mathieu Castagnet at a level of
30,080. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mazen Hesham changes to +23% and Mathieu Castagnet changes to -29%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mazen Hesham becomes +4.6% and for Mathieu Castagnet becomes -5.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Grasshopper Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mathieu Castagnet is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mazen Hesham: 96%, Mathieu Castagnet: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mazen Hesham: 73%, Mathieu Castagnet: 65%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mazen Hesham:
43,970, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Mathieu Castagnet:
37,446, level confidence: 65%.