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Chris Emanuel v Nic Birt (Thu 22 Mar 2018)

Match won by Nic Birt. Result: 8-11,6-11,6-11.

Starting level for Chris Emanuel: 2,592, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Nic Birt: 9,144, level confidence: 67%.
Nic Birt to win as he is currently playing 253% better than Chris Emanuel.

Nic Birt won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nic Birt played 65% better than Chris Emanuel in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Nic Birt was taking it easy by anything up to 30%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,107 and 9,144 without affecting his level.

In this case, Nic Birt played at level 5,235 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Nic Birt would normally have been playing at level 6,407 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Emanuel played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 22%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nic Birt changes to 0% and Chris Emanuel changes to +11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nic Birt becomes 0% and for Chris Emanuel becomes +5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Spring 2018' so the adjustment for Nic Birt is 0% and for Chris Emanuel is +3.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nic Birt: 82%, Chris Emanuel: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nic Birt: 56%, Chris Emanuel: 54%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Emanuel: 2,685, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Nic Birt: 9,130, level confidence: 56%.