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Doug Green v Matt M Wills (Wed 28 Mar 2018)

Match won by Doug Green. Result: 3-9,9-2,9-5,9-7.

Starting level for Doug Green: 2,004, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Matt M Wills: 899, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Doug Green to win as he is currently playing 123% better than Matt M Wills.

Doug Green won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Doug Green played 22% better than Matt M Wills in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Doug Green was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,379 and 2,004 without affecting his level.

As Doug Green has played below his allowed range at 1,230, his level reduction is 12% before damping. On the assumption that Doug Green would normally have been playing at level 1,697 (based on typical behaviour), Matt M Wills played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 24%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.9% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Doug Green changes to -7.9% and Matt M Wills changes to +15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Doug Green becomes -4.2% and for Matt M Wills becomes +8.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Doug Green is -3.1% and for Matt M Wills is +6.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Doug Green: 84%, Matt M Wills: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Doug Green: 62%, Matt M Wills: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Doug Green: 1,941, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Matt M Wills: 957, level confidence: 64%.