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Mazen Hesham v Steven Liu (Thu 29 Mar 2018)

Match won by Mazen Hesham. Result: 11-4,11-2,11-8.

Starting level for Mazen Hesham: 43,723, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Steven Liu: 6,944, level confidence: 23%.
Mazen Hesham to win as he is currently playing 530% better than Steven Liu.

Mazen Hesham won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mazen Hesham played 136% better than Steven Liu in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mazen Hesham was taking it easy by anything up to 49%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 11,574 and 43,723 without affecting his level.

In this case, Mazen Hesham played at level 19,189 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mazen Hesham would normally have been playing at level 22,495 (based on typical behaviour), Steven Liu played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mazen Hesham changes to 0% and Steven Liu changes to +6.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mazen Hesham becomes 0% and for Steven Liu becomes +2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Macau Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mazen Hesham: 87%, Steven Liu: 48%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mazen Hesham: 53%, Steven Liu: 29%.

Final level for Mazen Hesham: 43,723, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Steven Liu: 7,121, level confidence: 29%.