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James Dickins v Rob Holmes (Tue 03 Apr 2018)

Match won by Rob Holmes. Result: 4-9,9-2,3-9,4-9.

Starting level for James Dickins: 1,440, level confidence: 46%.
Starting level for Rob Holmes: 2,064, level confidence: 58%.
Rob Holmes to win as he is currently playing 43% better than James Dickins.

Rob Holmes won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Holmes played 24% better than James Dickins in this match.

As Rob Holmes has played below his allowed range at 1,833, his level reduction is 2.9% before damping. On the assumption that Rob Holmes would normally have been playing at level 1,983 (based on typical behaviour), James Dickins played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.4% and 4.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Holmes changes to -1.9% and James Dickins changes to +4.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Holmes becomes -1.5% and for James Dickins becomes +3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Rob Holmes is -1.1% and for James Dickins is +2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Holmes: 76%, James Dickins: 68%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Holmes: 71%, James Dickins: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Dickins: 1,473, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Rob Holmes: 2,039, level confidence: 71%.