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Rob Anderson v Elvin Booth (Mon 09 Apr 2018)

Match won by Rob Anderson. Result: 9-4,9-5,9-4.

Starting level for Rob Anderson: 2,569, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Starting level for Elvin Booth: 1,141, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Rob Anderson to win as he is currently playing 125% better than Elvin Booth.

Rob Anderson won all of the games and 68% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Anderson played 50% better than Elvin Booth in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Rob Anderson was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,754 and 2,569 without affecting his level.

As Rob Anderson has played below his allowed range at 1,734, his level reduction is 1.1% before damping. On the assumption that Rob Anderson would normally have been playing at level 2,168 (based on typical behaviour), Elvin Booth played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.8% and 8.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Anderson changes to -0.7% and Elvin Booth changes to +8.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Anderson becomes -0.5% and for Elvin Booth becomes +5.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Vets League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Rob Anderson is -0.4% and for Elvin Booth is +3.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Anderson: 94%, Elvin Booth: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Anderson: 77%, Elvin Booth: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rob Anderson: 2,556, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Elvin Booth: 1,184, level confidence: 73%.