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Elvin Booth v Paul Searle (Wed 18 Apr 2018)

Match won by Paul Searle. Result: 9-1,4-9,2-9,9-7,4-9.

Starting level for Elvin Booth: 1,184, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Searle: 2,090, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Paul Searle to win as he is currently playing 77% better than Elvin Booth.

Paul Searle won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Searle played 11% better than Elvin Booth in this match.

As Paul Searle has played below his allowed range at 1,496, his level reduction is 14% before damping. On the assumption that Paul Searle would normally have been playing at level 1,910 (based on typical behaviour), Elvin Booth played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.4% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Searle changes to -9.3% and Elvin Booth changes to +15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Searle becomes -4.6% and for Elvin Booth becomes +8.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Vets League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Paul Searle is -3.4% and for Elvin Booth is +6.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Searle: 88%, Elvin Booth: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Searle: 70%, Elvin Booth: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Elvin Booth: 1,256, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Paul Searle: 2,018, level confidence: 70%.