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Russell Baker v Dave Bradley (Thu 19 Apr 2018)

Match won by Russell Baker. Result: 9-3,9-4,9-1.

Starting level for Russell Baker: 1,548, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Dave Bradley: 1,140, level confidence: 61%.
Russell Baker to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Dave Bradley.

Russell Baker won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 86% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Russell Baker played 86% better than Dave Bradley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Russell Baker actually played at a level of 1,812 and Dave Bradley at a level of 974. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Russell Baker changes to +14% and Dave Bradley changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Russell Baker becomes +7.1% and for Dave Bradley becomes -8.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Vets League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Russell Baker is +5.3% and for Dave Bradley is -6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Russell Baker: 79%, Dave Bradley: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Russell Baker: 67%, Dave Bradley: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Russell Baker: 1,628, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Dave Bradley: 1,074, level confidence: 67%.