Charlie Lee v Connor Sheen (Wed 18 Apr 2018)
Match won by Charlie Lee. Result: 11-3,11-5,11-7.
Starting level for
Charlie Lee:
25,355, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Connor Sheen:
15,218, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Charlie Lee to win as he is currently playing
67% better than Connor Sheen.
Charlie Lee won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Charlie Lee played
120% better than Connor Sheen in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Charlie Lee actually played at a level of
29,135 and Connor Sheen at a level of
13,243. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 11% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Charlie Lee changes to +11% and Connor Sheen changes to -11.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Charlie Lee becomes +2.9% and for Connor Sheen becomes -3.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA West Of Ireland Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Charlie Lee: 84%, Connor Sheen: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Charlie Lee: 73%, Connor Sheen: 74%.
Final level for Charlie Lee:
26,089, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Connor Sheen:
14,752, level confidence: 74%.