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Charlie Lee v Auguste Dussourd (Thu 19 Apr 2018)

Match won by Charlie Lee. Result: 11-9,8-11,11-8,7-11,11-6.

Starting level for Charlie Lee: 25,640, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Auguste Dussourd: 24,745, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Charlie Lee to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Auguste Dussourd.

Charlie Lee won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Charlie Lee played 9% better than Auguste Dussourd in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Charlie Lee actually played at a level of 26,318 and Auguste Dussourd at a level of 24,108. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Charlie Lee changes to +2.6% and Auguste Dussourd changes to -2.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Charlie Lee becomes +1.1% and for Auguste Dussourd becomes -1.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA West Of Ireland Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Charlie Lee: 85%, Auguste Dussourd: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Charlie Lee: 83%, Auguste Dussourd: 83%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Charlie Lee: 25,858, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Auguste Dussourd: 24,544, level confidence: 83%.