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Charlie Lee v Nicholas Sachvie (Fri 20 Apr 2018)

Match won by Charlie Lee. Result: 11-5,11-7,11-7.

Starting level for Charlie Lee: 26,227, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nicholas Sachvie: 24,267, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Charlie Lee to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Nicholas Sachvie.

Charlie Lee won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Charlie Lee played 74% better than Nicholas Sachvie in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Charlie Lee actually played at a level of 33,248 and Nicholas Sachvie at a level of 19,143. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Charlie Lee changes to +25% and Nicholas Sachvie changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Charlie Lee becomes +5.3% and for Nicholas Sachvie becomes -5.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA West Of Ireland Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Nicholas Sachvie is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Charlie Lee: 91%, Nicholas Sachvie: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Charlie Lee: 72%, Nicholas Sachvie: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Charlie Lee: 27,430, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Nicholas Sachvie: 23,152, level confidence: 71%.