Nic Birt v Darren Lewis (Sat 21 Apr 2018)
Match won by Darren Lewis. Result: 6-11,8-11,11-7,10-12.
Starting level for
Nic Birt:
9,135, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Darren Lewis:
11,636, level confidence: 48%.
Darren Lewis to win as he is currently playing
27% better than Nic Birt.
Darren Lewis won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Darren Lewis played
22% better than Nic Birt in this match.
As Darren Lewis has played below his allowed range at 11,188, his level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Darren Lewis would normally have been playing at level 11,413 (based on typical behaviour), Nic Birt played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Darren Lewis changes to 0% and Nic Birt changes to +0.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Darren Lewis becomes -0% and for Nic Birt becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Home Internationals 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Darren Lewis: 69%, Nic Birt: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Darren Lewis: 68%, Nic Birt: 86%.
Final level for Nic Birt:
9,162, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Darren Lewis:
11,633, level confidence: 68%.