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Declan James v Zahed Mohamed (Mon 23 Apr 2018)

Match won by Declan James. Result: 11-3,11-9,11-6.

Starting level for Declan James: 34,346, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Zahed Mohamed: 32,636, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Zahed Mohamed.

Declan James won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played 83% better than Zahed Mohamed in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Declan James actually played at a level of 45,332 and Zahed Mohamed at a level of 24,727. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to +31% and Zahed Mohamed changes to -29%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes +6.1% and for Zahed Mohamed becomes -5.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA El Gouna International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Declan James is limited to +5.5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 82%, Zahed Mohamed: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 62%, Zahed Mohamed: 64%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Declan James: 36,199, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Zahed Mohamed: 31,088, level confidence: 64%.